A Better Reason to Hodl

in LeoFinance8 months ago

One of my colleagues became a new father a week ago and has been on paternity leave. I congratulated him the other day just after the birth to which he quickly responded, but today he sent me a message:

"It's very exciting!"

One could be forgiven for thinking he was talking about fatherhood, but no, he was talking about Bitcoin. He is one of the guys that finally got in this year and has laddered up a little over the months and now, he feels validated. This sense of validation, that the right call was made, is important for most people to experience as for those who are new to crypto, there is plenty of room for self-doubt on the decision to invest, as there is a lot of FUD saying that those who do are delusional idiots, who have no grip on reality.

I have no idea how deep he went, but from where I know he bought at least some, he is looking at a 300% gain or so in the space of 6 months and while he likely has other traditional investments, this one has likely outstripped the earnings on all others by a fair margin. At the same time, he has said that the amount he has put in isn't the kind that is worth selling at this point, as while the percentage gain is enormous, the practical gain isn't going to change his life much. What I wonder though is, would it change his newborn's life?

With near universal consistency, parents want what is best for their children and a part of that includes their financial wellbeing, as most adults know that while money can't be happiness, it does have its advantages to facilitate a higher quality of life. But just imagine, I don't know what @edicted's doubling curve says about this, but say I have 1 Bitcoin today (worth about $22,000) and decided to "take the risk" and put 10% of it away for my daughter's 18th birthday, what would that 0.1 BTC be worth in 14 years from now and more importantly, what would that get for her?

Currently, it is worth 2200. So, 2200 invested at 10% for 14 years and compounded monthly would yield about 8800 dollars, That is assuming that I could find an investment that gives 10% p.a. consistently for 14 years as well. Therefore, for 0.1 Bitcoin in 2034 to be worth the same, Bitcoin would have to be at 88,000 dollars. This would be without risking the 0.1 trading or anything silly like that, just sitting it in a wallet and forgetting about it for a childhood.

What say you? does 88,000 dollars for a Bitcoin sound like a lot in 14 years from now?

And then of course, I'd have to think what that would provide my daughter at that time, someone who may be just heading off to school of some kind or, going out into the world to get a job of some kind. 8800 dollars doesn't do a great deal for her, but what it would do is give her a head start into something, or perhaps a buy-in for her own investment plans. Going into the world with something, is better than going in with nothing.

But, I would assume that most people would predict that if Bitcoin survives 14 years, it is going to be worth a fair amount more than 88K - so if we push it out by 10x, that 0.1 would be worth 88K by itself - which I assume would be enough for at least a deposit on an apartment 14 years in the future from today. At that price, even if salaries doubled from today's levels, that 88K would provide a +10% bonus for the next ten years on the average and this means that used well, my daughter would have not only the disposable income she can generate and save, but the bonus each year to play with at what is effectively no loss to her, as I have already covered the costs in the past.

In March, that 0.1 Bitcoin was about 350 dollars worth - today it is 2200 dollars worth, five years from now it will be ______ dollars worth. What is pretty exciting for the future is that at some point, there are going to be little bits of Bitcoin popping up from all over the globe where parents did have some foresight and put a little away for their children. This should definitely be the case if you see the future of Bitcoin as a store or generator of value - because it would be crazy to want to be able to provide for a child's future, but not put away some into Bitcoin or other cryptos now. Just imagine the potential of even the fearful saying, I know it is a risk, but 10% of everything I put away for my daughter is going to be into crypto.

But, the problem is the same as my friend above - we don't tend to have that long of an outlook on our investments and when it comes to putting away for our children, we can not only be cautious, but because the outlook is so long, we tend to be a little lazy, we want to be more "set and forget". I think this is why A hold crypto is perfect for this, as it can be bought now "cheaply" and put away in a secure location and stored, "risk-free" for as long as the keys are protected.

I don't have much Bitcoin, but I have still put a little away for my daughter for her future betterment, as well as the "just in case she needs" it in terms of other factors in life that might arise from the social volatility we are feeding. While I hope that she can use it in a way that she enjoys, if she needs it to save herself, that'll do too.

Anyway, my wife and I do put some money "in the bank" for our daughter, but I think that the world is getting too risky and the reward for doing so is far too low. So, while it isn't much, I think I will look to supplement my own crypto contributions for her by using a percentage of the fiat we put aside for her to buy a little crypto too. Thinking that if it is for Smallsteps, it can make the hodling take on a different meaning with a greater purpose. Is anyone else doing or planning to do this for their children?

I think most parents would agree that they will go to extraordinary lengths for their children and I wonder, will holding for them make potentially loose hands, grip much more tightly.

I have talked to my colleague a bit about this in the last few months when he has said that his holdings aren't significant and have planted the seed of - not significant today, but in 18 years from now...

"It's very exciting!"

[ Gen1: Hive ]

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Does bitcoin have 18 years left in it, though? We have superior tech all over the place, and no doubt 5 years from now we'll have even better again.
I expect it'll still exist, but I've been in crypto 7 years now, and haven't used bitcoin in the last 3. What happens when others do the same?

Hard to say, as it is likely that BTC will evolve also or hold value as a legacy store that hardly moves.

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This is a very hard and trying time for people to figure out where to put funds for future growth. I think you have done it right in putting it into the house and the future.

Banks are something I have always seen as iffy ever since my late teen and early 20's. My parents had started us a, what at the time was called, a "passbook savings account*, designed for the younger people but applying to everyone. It was a savings account only. No minimum deposit required, no fees at the time of creation, no rules for minimum balance. The rules changed with out proper notice to people, many small accounts were zeroed out mine included.

People need to be very cautious of the "set and forget" mentality when it comes to planing for the future.

I had a passbook account too, though I asked my mum to open it for me. I don't know what happened to it even.

The set and forget for crypto like bitcoin is, get and forget. Make it hard to sell and work hard so you don't have to.

The house is likely to be my only "real" investment. The rest will be dependent on crypto I think .

By 2025 we may see central banks getting in on the action to shore up the dwindling values of their respective fiats. It will begin with outcast countries like Iran that actually supports the Bitcoin mining industry in the country by offering subsidized power if they register with the authorities. The bitcoins mined will be used to pay for imports now that Iran has been cut off from the international banking system.

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It is going to get interesting. I don't know if you remember back in 2017 when wikileaks tweeted about its own banking. After they had all of their fiat gateways for funding closed, they were forced into Bitcoin - financially at least, it worked out well for them.

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Yeah, and that didn't surprise me.

My thoughts on this are that it is the same as planting a tree and taken care of it (both the child and the investment). There maybe times you need to check and watch closely at stuff. But in the end, you will reap the fruits of your investment. However, you'll never know if the fruit is good until it is the right time to pick it.

I think this is the way to look at it.

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The more I read and get deep into this crypto space, the more I regret why I sold those BTC holdings I bought in May.
My wife and I are having a similar conversation where we are buying BTC every two weeks in our son's name so that it is easy to hodl. We are not sure if we will cash that out or keep true to our word but we are pretty confident that we will hodl our btc until the next halving 😇BTC for kids.

If you made some profits or it helped you in a time of need, don't regret it. At the end of the day, life is made of decisions and of choices that often, we don't even know we have or have made.

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Fair point. We may have to do that based on the situation we will be in. But, the primary motivation will be to save and hold.

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That's pretty much what I'm doing with the kids' hive. Middle child pointed out that they don't really use it (youngest does want to but requires my assistance and we've been struggling to tee it up) and I said it might come in useful one day.

Just keep it active and earning a little curation and who knows, perhaps it will come in handy a few years down the track or, it will be a nice place to start when they do get more interested.

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They're just vote trailing me atm. Waiting for Dapplr to hit iOS (if it ever does) as it will probably be much nicer for my Tiktok and Instagram using child who does seem to want to post cosplay stuff on here but even using something as basic as Peakd seems to be too difficult/complicated for anyone from Facebook onwards XD

People are getting so excited about this Bitcoin moment that they may end up making the wrong decisions.

I think patience and attention have never been more needed in the cryptocurrency world than now.

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I agree. People like to buy the highs thinking it'll always o higher. One thing about crypto people is, very few are patient - whether the market is going up or down.

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14 (or 18) years is a very long time in some aspects. It's been a hell of a long time since I was 18 :) Not that conventional wisdom exactly applies here, but in USD should double twice or nearly so in that time frame. I think BTC has more potential to gain value than USD.

For the other obvious part. A deposit on her first apartment would be a wonderful start. Or many other 'things' we can imagine. But I suspect that the realization that her parents invested money that could have been otherwise used will be the truly valuable position. When she realizes that none of her contemporaries has that advantage. No matter the amount.

but in USD should double twice or nearly so in that time frame. I think BTC has more potential to gain value than USD.

Yep, so at the very least, holders should be up on holding fiat :)

I am just hoping that if this does all work out, she will be smart enough to use it so she will never have to worry about what she does for work, but can always choose what she loves.

If I would be a parent I would do the same. Holding onto fiat or putting it in a bank looks safe, but actually nothing is safe. When you risk what you can afford to lose it's worth giving crypto a go.

Even if you aren't a parent, think about doing the same, just in case there isn't an apocalypse and we live long lives :)

For sure!

Yeah, one never knows for sure what the future holds. I think that the banks will all become fully mobile with apps and sooner or later they will all be on the blockchain.
The question that I am pondering upon is; will the endowment fund that we are building for Papillon's future work remain safe in the bank?

We have a bit in there and the monthly interest payout allow us to continue with the projects, but the fixed amount remain stagnant as there is no interest build up to increase it.
That's why I refrain from taking anything out of Hive, as the idea is to continue building the Hive account.
Once it is above 50,000 HP, I might consider taking a 5 or 10% weekly powerdown to transfer the funds directly into the endowment fund.
But we have to see what the future holds and at my age, it will not be a very long future lol.

The question that I am pondering upon is; will the endowment fund that we are building for Papillon's future work remain safe in the bank?

That is a good question. It is hard to say long-term, but short it should be okay. The problem is going to come if the banks start to restrict the movement of money or, drain the accounts to pay debt.

Hopefully Hive will increase enough in value that the 5-10% will add a decent amount to your endowment fund - I hope.

Yes, you are right and we see that happening in Zimbabwe.
But the country would have to be totally bankrupt before that happens.

That increase is also what we are hoping for, but in the meantime I continue to build.
Pity that @combination is growing so slow, as we also have it on auto-curate, but there's always hope for the future!

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Its so exciting , I Did the same for our boys , and who knows they will say in 12 years mum had a great idea and I am excited to announce I am buying ......... with that bc form mums exciting moment